SA could see social unrest ahead of elections, new report warns

The warning is contained in a country risk report by the German company. 

It said that the increase in violent uprisings and the growing disputes between political elites would weigh on state legitimacy, the ANC’s capability to defuse dissent and the predictability and efficacy of government action.

“The leading party clearly lost positions in the local elections held in November 2022, when support for the ANC crucially fell below the 50% benchmark,” the group said.

“For now, it is difficult to see a strong contender, and even if the party loses the absolute majority in the upcoming election, it is likely to remain the largest in parliament, way ahead of its closest rival and able to continue to govern with the support of a junior coalition partner.”

In July 2021, there was an eruption of public violence, destruction of property and looting that took place in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng.

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Chief Economist at Sequoia Capital, Chris Harmse, said any large strikes, protests or public unrest would have a negative effect on the South African economy.

“It can have enormous effects on the South African economy. The direct effect on the loss of production and income and the investment sentiment from the rest of the world. So, all this public unrest and uncertainty definitely may lead to a weaker economy and increased unemployment. A lot of policy mistakes from the government leading up to the election may have an even bigger effect than the load shedding.”

Harmse said the lack of reliable electricity supply is adding to people’s sense of frustration.

“The direct effect is your monthly electricity bill, which we all know has increased by more than 45% in the last two years. The disposable income and productivity effect on people working at home due to load shedding.”

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