A disgruntled Magashule may mobilise ANC against itself - analyst
Ace Magashule may have scored an own goal against his political ambitions within his own party, the African National Congress (ANC).
The fraud and corruption case against him was postponed to January next year to allow the accused Zes to petition the Supreme Court of Appeal to have the fraud and corruption charges against them withdrawn.
Magashule and his co-accused appeared in the High Court in Bloemfontein for a pre-trial hearing on Friday morning, on charges related to the controversial R255 million asbestos tender which was issued during his tenure as Free State premier.
The suspended ANC secretary-general has described the postponement as being politically motivated, claiming the aim is to prevent him from contesting any leadership position at the party’s elective conference in December.
Political analyst Ralph Mathekga believes Magashule’s claims fall flat - as the issue relates to a complex commercial crime that would ordinarily require thorough investigations and a protracted trial.
“Preparations for trial for these kind of cases take long, so there was no way there was going to be any finality today; there was no way the trial could have been completed before the elective conference," he said.
Mathekga adds the Phala Phala saga involving President Cyril Ramaphosa, where he faces allegations of criminality but has not been formally charged, could throw a spanner in the application of the step-aside rule - if Magashule or any of Ramaphosa’s detractors can prove that the state organs are being used to fight political battles.
“If it comes out that police are deliberately avoiding investigation, and the prosecution is avoiding to prosecute the President, then there would be a case that the step aside is not be applied equally across the party…but how do they workout within the ANC, these two cases, the prosecution has not charged the President and Magashule has been charged. The criteria is clear."
Meanwhile, political analyst at the North University, Professor Andre Duvenhage, says Magashule could mobilise branch support to disrupt ANC processes if he were left out of the leadership race.
“The big question is what is the strongest? The political processes; read ANC, and support base on the one side or the legal processes on the other side. And, in many cases I have seen that political processes are stronger than legal processes," he said.
Duvenhage says the so-called RET forces have not put forward a strong potential candidate that could oppose Ramaphosa.
“Ramaphosa has the upper hand for now, but the support base during the national conference is coming from the branches in representative terms. The branches will elect the president, and that is where people like Ace Magashule is extremely strong. I believe he may mobilise the ANC against the ANC.”
Duvenhage has described Magashule as ‘quiet but working under surface’ with a strong base across at least three provinces. He adds that the country could experience high levels of instability if Magashule is excluded from the December conference.
The NWU professor says continued internal battles in the ANC could result in far-reaching detrimental effects for the governing party at the 2024 general poll.
