South Africa turns a corner on load shedding
After years of power cuts, South Africa is seeing real stability on the grid, with Eskom pointing to recovery and a brighter energy outlook.
It seems load shedding may be a distant memory for South Africans. This comes after Eskom board chair Mteto Nyati revealed that the power utility will no longer have a strong focus on energy security. In an interview with Newzroom Afrika, Nyati stated that the power utility's board and executive management want to act as a catalyst for South Africa's industrialisation.
“Over the past three years or so, our big focus has been on energy security. I would say that is largely behind us now. You know, we should not be seeing load shedding,” Nyati said.
He noted that Eskom should look further than coal.
“Coal is just one component of what we do, but we need to be thinking nuclear. We need to be thinking gas, because gas is being used globally as a transitional form of energy,” said Nyati.
He explained that the move from coal to gas comes with a high price tag; however, it will supply a base load capability.
“I would say that by 2030 we should already be having gas in South Africa,” he shared.
How much generation capacity has Eskom recovered?
Nyati’s comments align closely with those of Eskom general manager Eric Shunmugam, who has highlighted the scale of recovery achieved across the generation fleet. The improvement in capacity and reliability has allowed Eskom to shift its focus away from crisis management and towards longer-term operational and cost considerations.
Shunmugam revealed that Eskom has increased its generation capacity by nearly 7,500MW since the winter of 2024. Two years ago, breakdowns across the system amounted to around 18GW. Currently, unplanned breakdowns are trending closer to 9GW, representing a recovery of approximately 7.5GW.
This improvement is significant in practical terms. Shunmugam noted that the recovered capacity is roughly equivalent to seven stages of load shedding. As a result, the power system has stabilised to the extent that Eskom has been able to report 325 consecutive days without load shedding.
Why has Eskom’s focus started to change?
With stability returning to the grid, Eskom’s priorities are evolving. Shunmugam explained that the utility is now concentrating on the cost of generating and supplying electricity, both to its direct customers and to municipalities. The aim is to ensure electricity can be produced at a lower cost while maintaining reliability and quality of supply.
This shift is taking place against the backdrop of an ageing generation fleet. Many of Eskom’s power stations rely on older technologies, which makes careful management essential to balance cost efficiency with dependable performance.
How stable is the power system entering 2026?
Eskom has entered 2026 with a roughly 4,400MW cushion of additional generation capacity compared to the same period last year. The utility has described the current power system as the most stable and reliable it has been in the past five years.
This improved position has been driven by sustained efforts to restore and maintain key power stations. Shunmugam said Eskom is now strong enough to begin reducing scheduled maintenance levels to better align with international norms.
What role did the recovery plan play?
Over the past 32 months, Eskom has implemented a recovery plan that focused on eight power stations. Initially, six plants were identified as major contributors to unplanned breakdowns, with two more later added to the priority list.
According to Shunmugam, the results of this focused approach are now evident. The targeted power stations have been brought back into more reliable operation, contributing meaningfully to the overall stability of the system.
Which power units made the biggest difference?
Among the key successes of the recovery drive are Kusile Unit 6, Medupi Unit 4 and a unit at the Koeberg Power Station. Together, these units are capable of producing up to 2,430MW.
When combined with other improvements across the fleet, Eskom now has an additional 4,400MW cushion compared to the same time in 2025. Shunmugam said this puts the utility in a far more favourable position than a year ago, when Eskom was struggling to secure every available megawatt.
How have breakdown levels changed?
Breakdowns across Eskom’s generation fleet have declined dramatically. Around 32 months ago, plants in breakdown accounted for close to 18,000MW. Today, breakdowns are trending at about 8,000MW.
This means Eskom has recovered approximately 10,000MW year-on-year. Shunmugam said this recovery has made generating plants more stable and reliable, reinforcing the gains achieved through the recovery plan.
What comes next for Eskom’s generation fleet?
In the short to medium term, Eskom’s existing generation fleet will remain central to maintaining system stability. However, Shunmugam cautioned that sustaining this level of performance in the longer term will require new nuclear power plants.
While the immediate crisis of load-shedding appears to be easing, Eskom’s leadership has made it clear that continued investment and strategic planning will be essential to ensure South Africa’s power system remains reliable well into the future.
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