South African chocolate lovers: There’s some sweet relief on the cards

Updated Dec. 12, 2025, 7:24 a.m. | By East Coast Breakfast

Chocolate lovers may finally see relief as global cocoa prices fall, opening the door to more affordable festive treats.

chocolate on brown table with cocoa powder / iStock

South African chocolate lovers may finally feel a sense of relief as global cocoa prices begin to ease after two turbulent years. The decline marks a significant shift for a market that has been under immense pressure, creating an opportunity for slightly more accessible chocolate products heading into the festive season

While this downward movement is welcome, experts caution that the cocoa industry continues to face deep-rooted challenges. The broader landscape remains unstable, shaped by environmental pressures, ageing plantations and heavy reliance on a limited number of producing regions. Any signs of improvement must therefore be viewed within this wider context of risk.

The recent price drop comes at a crucial time for South Africa’s chocolate manufacturers, many of which have been forced to absorb steep input costs and increase shelf prices throughout the last year. According to BusinessTech, the easing of international cocoa prices has created much-needed space for the local sector, though the long-term trajectory is far from certain.

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What has caused the decline in cocoa prices?

Simon Lacoume, sector chief economist at Coface, said the current correction follows an extended period of severe strain. He explained that after two years of heightened tension, cocoa prices are finally returning to more rational levels. Cocoa had reached almost 12,000 dollars (around R202,903) per ton towards the end of 2024, before dropping to around 5,000 dollars (around R84,542) per ton - a fall of more than half in just 12 months.

Lacoume attributed this sharp decline to two main factors: stronger-than-expected harvest forecasts in Côte d’Ivoire and a slowdown in speculative trading, both of which had contributed substantially to last year’s price surge. Even with the steep correction, he noted that current prices remain twice the long-term average of 2,525 dollars (around R42,694) per ton recorded between 2012 and 2022.

How does this impact South African chocolate costs?

For South African retailers and manufacturers, the shift offers a chance to recover margins and limit further price increases. Last year’s soaring input costs had squeezed profitability across the sector, resulting in unavoidable retail price hikes. The recent price drop introduces the possibility of more affordable chocolate products over the holiday period, though experts maintain that the future remains unpredictable.

Lacoume warned that global supply chains are still exposed to numerous risks. The disruptions that shaped the 2024 crisis, including the effects of El Niño and the spread of the swollen shoot virus, may have faded, but the structural supply deficit persists. Many plantations remain old, under-investment is widespread and productivity continues to depend heavily on a few regions.

Why is the cocoa supply chain still fragile?

Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana remain central to global cocoa production, jointly supplying nearly 60 per cent of the world’s cocoa. When the rest of West Africa is included, this figure climbs to around 70 per cent. This concentration leaves the entire chocolate industry vulnerable to any regional disruption, whether climatic, agricultural or economic.

At the same time, global demand for chocolate continues to strengthen. Consumption is rising rapidly in Asia and within premium categories worldwide. Ethical, organic and low-sugar chocolates are expanding their reach, and there is increasing interest in products certified by Fairtrade and the Rainforest Alliance.

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Are producing countries gaining more value?

Producing countries are attempting to increase their share of the value chain. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are expanding domestic grinding capacity, aiming to generate greater returns through processing rather than relying solely on raw bean exports. Despite these efforts, much of the industry’s power still lies further north.

Europe continues to dominate global cocoa processing, led by Germany and the Netherlands. The sector itself remains highly concentrated, with four major companies holding two-thirds of global grinding capacity and another small group controlling most retail confectionery. This entrenched dominance creates a significant barrier for new entrants and reinforces longstanding global inequalities.

Could emerging producers shift the balance?

Although West Africa remains the industry’s backbone, Latin American countries, especially Ecuador, are increasingly determined to reshape the global landscape. Ecuador aims to surpass Ghana by 2027 with an annual production target of 650,000 tons, signalling a potential shift in future supply patterns.

Regulatory changes are also influencing the sector. New EU traceability rules, along with updated farm-gate pricing in Ghana at 3,408 dollars per ton and in Côte d’Ivoire at 2,650 dollars per ton, are pushing the global market towards greater transparency and sustainability.